FROM THE GULF WAR TO THE CONTEMPORARY ERA: A LONGITUDINAL ANALYSIS OF U.S. POLICY AND ITS SOCIO-POLITICAL IMPACT IN IRAQ (1991 – 2026)

Abstract. The aim of this study is to conduct a comprehensive longitudinal analysis of the evolution of U.S. foreign policy toward Iraq from 1991 to late 2026. The author examines the transformation of American strategy from containment to direct military intervention and the subsequent formation of a strategic partnership model, assessing the profound socio-political impact on Iraqi statehood and society.

Methodology. The study employs a combination of general scientific and special historical methods. The problem-chronological method allows for the sequential reconstruction of events. Comparative and systematic analysis helps identify cause-and-effect relationships between Washington’s decisions and Iraq’s internal transformations, particularly ethno-confessional fragmentation and institutional crisis. The longitudinal approach traces the entire trajectory of relations over three decades.

Scientific novelty. The paper systematizes and reinterprets the long-term consequences of the American «de-Ba’athification» and «democracy promotion» policies, which led to the formation of a specific ethno-confessional quota system. It analyzes the transition of the U.S. mission from combat to advisory roles as an attempt to preserve influence amid proxy confrontation with Iran. The research demonstrates how American intervention changed Iraqi societal identity and state institutions, creating a situation described as a «strategic trap».

Conclusions. The study confirms that U.S. policy became a catalyst for prolonged instability that continues to shape the Middle East’s geopolitical landscape. The gap between liberal ideals and local realities led to social infrastructure degradation and a security vacuum filled by radical actors, including the Islamic State (ISIS). The author concludes that the success of the American strategy in the coming years will depend on transforming relations from patronage to equal economic partnership, allowing Iraq to function as a sovereign state capable of balancing between regional power centers.

Key words: U.S. foreign policy, Iraq, Gulf War, state-building, Middle East geopolitics, security, sovereignty.

Submitted: 20.02.2026

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